Is it still too early to say that Donald Trump is considering running for president and has a remarkably decent chance of winning? Again?
I say this not because I support him, but because I am a realist who decided after his 2016 victory that I would never again underestimate Trump or his supporters. Its basis is still solid. The same is true of its hold over most of the GOP, as evidenced by its one-page 2020 platform, which announced the party’s decision not to have a platform:
“The RNC (Republican National Committee), if the Platform Committee had been able to meet in 2020,” it reads in part, “would undoubtedly have unanimously agreed to reaffirm the party’s strong support for the president Donald Trump and his administration “.
Translation: The party believes everything Trump says. We continually see why Trump as president seemed to get along much more happily with autocrats than with leaders forced by their democratic governments to respond to ordinary voters.
Of course, it’s important to remember that Biden and the other Dems can always recover. The 2024 presidential election is still a long way off. But first come next year’s midterm elections, in which the electoral map strongly favors Republicans, threatening the paper-thin majority of Democrats in both houses of Congress.
For now, the biggest gaps the White House Biden needs to worry about could be the enthusiasm gap. In late September, New York Times poll correspondent Nate Cohn wrote that Biden’s ratings were lower than all but two presidents at similar times in their terms: Gerald Ford and Donald Trump.